What Does Al Qaeda Want?

As the Department of Homeland Security issues a notice of increased terrorist threat which apparently does not justify an increase in the alert level, various commentators have suggested that this announcement has less to do with a genuine threat of terrorist activity and is instead intended to boost Bush's falling popularity. The history of such announcements and changes in the alert level gives some amount of credence to that cynicism - but it really is impossible for anybody without a high level security clearance to assess the "buzz" or information behind the alert changes, so as to know if they are truly justified.

One reaction to the latest announcement from the DHS has been, "Al Qaeda would be stupid to attack before the election", because conventional wisdom is that such an attack would boost Bush in the polls and help him secure reelection. This country is unlikely to follow Spain's example of punishing a government which failed to protect them from an attack on the eve of an election - and lied about the probable identity of terrorists. Not only has this nation has demonstrated over the past several years a surprising willingness to excuse and rationalize lies and false claims from the highest levels of government, there is a popular sense that Republicans are "better at defense". (While some question whether the facts bear out that popular conception - and it is fair to observe that the military which acquitted itself so well in Iraq and Afghanistan, at a level far beyond its performance a decade earlier, is the product of Clinton's defense policies - it nonetheless persists.)

But to presuppose that Al Qaeda would forestall an attack to prevent Bush's reelection is to presuppose that Al Qaeda doesn't want Bush to be reelected. Is that truly the case? What would better advance Al Qaeda's stated goal of drawing the U.S. into a large-scale conflict in the Middle East that it cannot win? A presumed Kerry policy of using a combination of international cooperation, pressure on "rogue nations", and special forces operations to detect, defund, decapitate, and "take out" terrorist cells and networks? Or a presumed Bush policy of invading additional nations in the Middle East? Which is more likely to result in the overextension of the U.S. armed forces, an unpopular conscription to man a growing number of military operations and occupations, and an economic stress which may reach the magnitude of that which helped collapse the former Soviet Union?

Who says Al Qaeda isn't cheering for Bush?