Monday, November 01, 2004

Interesting Headline


The International Herald Tribune observes, "Rehnquist delays return, prompting new questions". Okay, the questions they raise are different, and more relevant, but with tongue firmly in cheek, doesn't the following question come to mind: "Without Rehnquist's vote in his favor, whatever the merits of the case, won't 'Bush v Kerry' end with a 4:4 tie?"

Lies, Lies, and More Lies


Today, Robert Samuelson touches on something that bothers me a lot about politics in this country. At least in a typical Western parliamentary system, between heckling on the floor of parliament and a weekly question period, there are frequent opportunities for bovine excrement to be called by name. Here? The media doesn't seem to do its job - or want to do its job - preferring to treat any allegation as a "he said, she said" to be resolved by two talking heads (representing the "pro" and "con") and a jabbering news anchor, or to run a sensational rumor apparently to sell additional papers or draw viewers for a later program, rather than spending the five or ten seconds it would take in many of these cases to find and report the truth.

The other day, Larry King was truly scraping bottom with Ann Richards, Al Sharpton, Dennis Prager, and Marc Racicot trading official "talking points" and absurd prevarications, along with pathetic answers to any direct question posed, while Larry played the part of, as Jon Stewart might say, the happy monkey. I just don't know how anybody who is even slightly informed on the issues, given that group of people and that opportunity, would be so seemingly taken in by each side's nonsense, and so unwilling to cry foul when the more absurd falsehoods are presented. And this is now the norm.

Samuelson notes,
While everyone has emphasized the differences between George Bush and John Kerry, what's more revealing are the similarities. Both have avoided some of the nation's most obvious problems: the coming spending explosion to pay baby boomers' retirement benefits (mainly Social Security and Medicare); the relentless advance in health costs that's squeezing wages and other government spending; the rising tide of immigration and the associated social problems; Americans' uncontrolled thirst for insecure foreign oil; and the perils of letting Iran and North Korea go nuclear.

To be sure, the candidates had positions. But these consisted mostly of appealing platitudes that said what people wanted to hear.
Well... yes. And let's not forget George "I cut your taxes" Bush, who refuses to address the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) which will soon claw back most or all of the "middle class tax cut" from about 90% of its beneficiaries, or Kerry who is very much aware of that issue but apparently afraid to make it a campaign issue - after all, current budget and deficit projections anticipate the continued expansion of AMT revenues.

Samuelson opines,
At the root of all these glaring omissions is public opinion. On these issues, pleasant solutions don't exist. ... If the public won't abide honest discussion of clear problems -- and our leaders can't lead opinion -- then the problems simply fester. In this campaign, neither Bush nor Kerry has risen above that dilemma.

That suggests that many of our largest social problems will progressively worsen until they get so bad that we're forced to deal with them. Or they deal harshly with us. This is the true deadlock, and it may be incurable.
Still, I wonder what would happen if an incumbent President, particularly one with a majority in both houses, truly took on the hard issues, rather than making every significant initiative take effect in his second term. What if a President dared to tell the truth and to lead during his first term, rather than treating it as an audition. After all, are we so stupid to think that Bush truly thought that the Israel-Palestine "road map" would be more or less complete in 2005? That the Medicare prescription benefit wasn't put off until 2006 because it is anticipated that many (or most) seniors will find it horribly lacking? That Afghanistan's Parliamentary elections won't take place until 2005 (even as its first Presidential election was moved up to make Bush-friendly headlines)? That although nominal sovereignty was handed over to a new, appointed council of Iraqi's, no election will occur until 2005? Everything difficult goes into the second term.

Well, yes... maybe we are that stupid.

(I single out Bush not because this is unique, but because he is the incumbent, and likes to pretend that he is a leader. By way of Democratic example, the roots of Clinton's failure in his Israel-Palestine peace efforts lie largely in his failure to address the hard issues, such as borders, settlements, and refugees, until his last six months in office.)

Minor Distractions III


Grandma: She's much cuter than you were when you were a baby.
Dad: I think she's much cuter than most babies.
Grandma: All parents think that.
Dad (to self): (Except you?)

Okay - so I can't be too hard on Grandma for thinking her grandkids are cuter than her kids were. ;-)

Thursday, October 28, 2004

Don't Ask, Don't Tell....


Urgent Message from Jonathan Garthwaite of Townhall.com - "Vets Want To Expose Kerry, Need Your Help".

Minor Distractions


Emma Katherine Larson
Born October 28, 2004
9:40 A.M.

Wednesday, October 27, 2004

Of Presidents and IQ


Why the obsession with GW's IQ? For the past five years, there has been one feeble "analysis" after another intended to assure us that he's actually pretty bright. Whether it is the analysis of his SAT scores or, more recently, his Air Force Officer Qualifying Test score.

A friend of mine once commented that what he found surprising is that it is quite easy to tell when somebody is not as smart as you are, but it is a lot harder to tell when somebody is smarter than you are. That's not to say that you cannot identify a situational brilliance - most will concede that Stephen Hawking can outdo them in the field of theoretical physics. But there's another side to this - even with his physical limitations removed from the equation, few would thereby conclude that Stephen Hawking was highly qualified to be President.

That's not to say we don't want a smart president - we obviously do. And obviously a great number of Bush supporters are sufficiently obsessed with "proving" that their candidate is sufficiently smart that they pore over dusty academic records and apply mathematical formulae they, well, seemingly make up, to prognosticate that when Bush was at one young age or another his IQ was somewhere in the mid-120's. A respectable IQ, although probably not particularly remarkable for Capitol Hill, which (whether or not you like the way they apply their intelligence) has more than its fair share of bright people.

We can easily get past the "IQ is meaningless" argument - it is apparent that IQ is quite meaningful within a broad range of common contexts. Bush's IQ is extrapolated from his SAT score - what, then, should we make of Paul Allen's combined 160, or Bill Gates' combined 1590 SAT scores? Is it a mere coincidence that two men whose SAT scores were "perfect" and "near-perfect" are co-founders of Microsoft (even if we wouldn't necessarily want either as President)?

But IQ isn't everything. A person can have a very high IQ but lack the social skills or even the thinking skills which make the IQ relevant. A high IQ score, of itself, doesn't make you conscientious or motivated. Of itself, it doesn't make you honest or trustworthy. Of itself, it doesn't make you a good or creative thinker. Of itself, it doesn't make you realize what every truly "smart" person knows - that learning is a lifelong experience, and that you will never have all of the answers. That is, life answers more questions than answers - and that the more you learn, the more you realize you do not yet know. And, of course, the measure of few IQ points one way or another is more likely to tell you something about the test and its margin of error, or how tired or bored the subject was when tested, than it is to tell you about any given individual.

President Bush may well have an IQ in the mid-120's. But if he does, he doesn't apply it well. He gave up on the journey of learning a very long time ago, apparently before he even got to college, and in many ways his campaign is effectively centered on his concrete operational thinking patterns - those which make him so certain that he is right and so unwilling to reconsider his mistakes. His more intelligent supporters who recognize these patterns - and recognize that they are indicative of a lower intelligence - obsess over proving he is "smart". And they keep going back to the same tired issue, over and over, because they know that Bush's public statements suggest that by Capitol Hill standards, whatever his IQ, Bush is at best a middling intellect.

Those supporters should remember two things. The reason that candidates like Clinton, Gore and Kerry aren't defensive about their intelligence is that they are confident of their intelligence - and their supporters share that comfort. And they should also remember that bragging that your friend is a few IQ points, or a few percentage points, higher than somebody else is a playground taunt, without any real world significance.

Tuesday, October 26, 2004

Well, That Settles That!


Rupert Murdoch on Fox News:
We're not in the least bit biased, we're a fair and balanced company.

Sunday, October 24, 2004

The "Integrity" of the Election


Believe it or not, despite his legendary (some might even say "mythic") balance, George Will has somehow managed to editorialize that the elections must be saved from evil Democrats and their trial lawyers - you know, like the ones who worked so vociferously for GW to block the 2000 Florida recount - and informs us of a shocking case in St. Louis, where they got a liberal judge to keep the polls open late such that more people could vote, but somehow forgot to mention the recurring problem of efforts to suppress the vote, or even recent criminal indictments surrounding a Republican vote suppression effort and redistricting effort.

But then, perhaps it's only worthy of mention if the questionable conduct might allow more registered voters to access the polls and cast lawful ballots.

Still, one wonders how he can comment on fraud associated with the use of absentee ballots, without even breathing a word about the legendary vote whores of Texas.

Saturday, October 23, 2004

Jon Stewart & Crossfire


Okay... The Washington Post ran a puff piece, addressing the Crossfire criticism at the end - and 'doesn't get it'. The New York Times tried a serious commentary, and really 'doesn't get it'.

Fortunately, although you have to travel all the way to Phoenix, not all is lost - this guy gets it.

The Flu Vaccine


One of the prevarications that Bush is presently spreading, to avoid taking any responsibility for the flu vaccine shortage, is that vaccine manufacturers are afraid to produce the flu vaccine because of litigation. Fascinating, then, that we have no shortage of, say, DPT vaccine, MMR vaccine, chicken pox vaccine, polio vaccine, hepatitis vaccine... heck, even yellow fever vaccine.

It is also interesting that, not being aware of any litigation over the flu vaccine, all I could find on the Internet were a handful of apparently unsuccessful lawsuits - three between 1976 and 1990 - alleging that the flu vaccine caused Guillain-Barre Syndrome (a form of peripheral polyneuritis characterized by pain and weakness and sometimes paralysis of the limbs, cause unknown).

Meanwhile, why no mention of the National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act, or the Vaccine Injury Compensation Program, which have removed most vaccine-related injuries from the courts?

So it does not appear that there is any appreciable litigation over the flu vaccine, some very effective "tort reform" measures are already in place to protect both manufacturers and consumers, so... could Bush be "making stuff up"? Um... yeah. that would be it.

Thursday, October 21, 2004

Kerry's Most Contentious Statement on Vietnam


In 1971, John Kerry made the following statement:
It is impossible to describe to you exactly what did happen in Detroit [in a meeting with 150 Vietnam veterans], the emotions in the room, the feelings of the men who were reliving their experiences in Vietnam, but they did. They relived the absolute horror of what this country, in a sense, made them do. They told the stories at times they had personally raped, cut off ears, cut off heads, tape wires from portable telephones to human genitals and turned up the power, cut off limbs, blown up bodies, randomly shot at civilians, razed villages in fashion reminiscent of Genghis Khan, shot cattle and dogs for fun, poisoned food stocks, and generally ravaged the country side of South Vietnam in addition to the normal ravage of war, and the normal and very particular ravaging which is done by the applied bombing power of this country.
The Swift Boat Liars and affiliated groups like to misrepresent that quote, as if Kerry is attributing the atrocities to all veterans as opposed to describing stories from individuals who were confessing to have committed atrocities. We know, both from military records and from extensive photojournalism, that at some level the described atrocities did occur. And while in retrospect I'm sure Kerry would have tacked on a whole host of disclaimers, I think he made pretty clear that he was relating individual confessions and was not accusing the average G.I. of having beheaded civilians.

When Life, Look, and other publications of the time published large format, black and white photographs of the atrocities Kerry described, nobody of consequence pretended that they were depicting the conduct of every soldier, or even the average soldier. And while I understand why nobody wants to dredge up those photographs (save, perhaps, for Vietnam - they are prominently featured in the War Museum in Ho Chi Minh City), would the Swift Boat Liars and their ilk make similar accusations at those publications if the images were brought forward by the mainstream media?

And for "documentaries" such as "Stolen Honor", which speak of prisoner mistreatment at the infamous "Hanoi Hilton", what was the greater sin? Kerry's testimony, which doesn't seem to relate to the conduct of the soldiers held at that prison, or Life's photo spread, carefully orchestrated by the North Vietnamese to make it appear that the prisoners were exceptionally well fed, housed and treated. When a prisoner, Lieutenant Paul Galanti, tried to convey a message, "This is all B.S.", by posing for a picture with his middle fingers extended, Life opted to edit out the middle fingers before publishing the picture - so as not to offend its audience.

A Presidency By Popular Vote?


David Broder today complains, with some basis, that if states apportion their electors in accord with the popular vote it is likely to result in a significant number of elections being decided in the House of Representatives. He defends the electoral college on the basis that it provides disproportionate voice to less populated states:
When Congress debated it after George Wallace threatened electoral deadlock with his third-party candidacy in 1968, opposition came from small states, whose senators feared they would be overlooked by the candidates, and from urban constituencies, who feared diminution of their power to swing big blocs of electoral votes through the unit rule.
But it is not at all clear from his comment why small states should have that type of veto power, even if rarely manifested in an effect on the election result. Even less compelling is his complaint about the possibility of run-off elections:
Most proposals for direct election specify a minimum percentage for victory -- usually 40 percent or 45 percent -- with a runoff between the top two contenders if no one reaches that threshold. But as soon as you introduce the possibility of a runoff, you create an incentive for minor parties to form, in hopes of bargaining for favors or policy concessions from the runoff opponents.
It seems easy enough to, say, not hold a run-off election, or (if people insisted) to put the threshold much lower (e.g., 34%) such that it would rarely if ever be a factor. Another response? Why is it "good" in Broder's mind that small states can bargain for favors or policy concessions due to their overrepresentation in the Electoral College, but not for "minor" parties (who carry enough clout to deliver a candidate a majority of the popular vote) to do the same?

Most voters in this nation are effectively told, well in advance of a Presidential election, "Your state is solidly blue or solidly red, so your concerns won't factor into the upcoming election unless they correspond to what a 'swing state' wants to hear. Oh - and you might as well stay home, because your vote for President doesn't actually count." I somehow doubt that's what the Founding Fathers had in mind, even if Broder is satisfied.

Wednesday, October 20, 2004

Kristof is Perplexed


Poor Nicholas Kristof today declares, "I understand the painful ethical choices of Abdelrahim's family, of Mr. Hassan and of the international aid agencies. But what I can't fathom is our own moral choice, our decision to acquiesce in genocide".
We in America could save kids like Abdelrahim and Muhammad. This wouldn't require troops, just a bit of gumption to declare a no-fly zone, to press our Western allies and nearby Arab and African states, to impose an arms embargo and other targeted sanctions, to push a meaningful U.N. resolution even at the risk of a Chinese veto, and to insist upon the deployment of a larger African force.

Instead, President Bush's policy is to chide Sudan and send aid. That's much better than nothing and has led Sudan to kill fewer children and to kill more humanely: Sudan now mostly allows kids in Darfur like Abdelrahim to die of starvation, instead of heaving them onto bonfires. But fundamentally, U.S. policy seems to be to "manage" the genocide rather than to act decisively to stop it.
Well, Nicholas, if you can convince Karl Rove how doing more will translate into votes for Bush (and not for Kerry), perhaps Bush will have a moral awakening.

Tuesday, October 19, 2004

Is It Really That Simple


Jonathan Freedland suggests that the Presidential election represents a conflict between faith and reason. While Freedland may overstate that conflict, even in his expression of grave concern he may well be understating the effect of a second Bush term on the United States.

Saturday, October 16, 2004

An American Crybaby In London


I had no idea Americans were so easily reduced to tears.

After going on at considerable length about how rude Londoners hate and attack Americans (something Paul Craddick forgot to mention in his recent travelogue), we're informed that the British are even worse than anti-American...
Here is what I perceive as the explanation: Europe has always been a seething hotbed of anti-semitism. England, sadly, has the distinction of being the very first country to expel its Jews and initiate the blood libel. The Jews were not allowed back into England until the time of Cromwell, and feel to this day that they worship by the grace of the sovereign.
Um... do I sense a slight bias in the author's perceptions?

When the author whines, "I cannot conduct business or even take a taxi ride in Britain without a scathing tirade about the scurrilous Yanks", I can't help but wonder if her London is even on the same planet as the one which holds the London that I vist from time to time. On my last trip, the most memorable taxi conversation involved a driver who, upon learning that I had lived in Manchester when I was five, started querying the extent of my expected resultant devotation to Man United. Ah, this crazy post-9/11 world....

Thursday, October 14, 2004

Past Presidential Races


First off, you have to remember that my opponent is a trial lawyer. A trial lawyer. Can we really afford to elect a president who is a trial lawyer?

Second, I have to say that my opponent doesn't talk straight. He uses complicated words to weave around the issues. I talk about my parents, he's talking about his "forefathers". I say "eighty-seven years ago", he's going on about "four score and seven years ago". What's up with that?

Third, and this is a big one, he's a flip-flopper. One day slavery is morally wrong, the next day he wants to keep it in place. Which one is it? This isn't a little issue, folks, whatever you think of that Dred Scott decision. I offer moral clarity.

Did I mention he looks funny? Does he even look like a President?

Should Debates Have Background Music?


These are dangerous times. I believe I offer tested, strong leadership that can calm the waters of the troubled world. And I believe that we can together do things that are within the grasp of Americans.
Perhaps this?

[Caution - that link will automatically play a .wav file.]

Wednesday, October 13, 2004

Stupid Questions, And How They Might Be Answered


The New York Times today permitted political partisans to pose "questions" that they would like to ask the other party's candidate (Questions for Bush; Questions for Kerry). I guess this is the power of celebrity - they got low-caliber "questions" which the letters editor would have trashed, and printed them anyway. Let's take 'em on.....
Charles Murray - Five percent of Americans pay 54 percent of all personal income taxes. They do not use more government services than other Americans; they use fewer. Why is this fair?
Mr. Murray, as you certainly know, the tax figure you present ignores payroll taxes. Yet payroll taxes, which are another form of income tax, take a huge bite out of the paychecks of working men and women. As you also know, you are ignoring sales taxes, state and local taxes, property taxes, gas taxes, so-called "sin" taxes, and many other taxes which fall on the shoulders of this nation's working men and women. You are also ignoring user fees and license fees. But you know all of that. You wish to distract people from tax realities in order to justify even more tax cuts for the richest of the rich. I favor a system of taxation that is fair to all people, Mr. Murray, rich and poor, not one that favors any particular group of people, and that is what I will work for.
Charles Murray - Would you be willing to sponsor tort reform that requires plaintiffs to have used common sense before being eligible for damages?
Mr. Murray, do you mean a calculus whereby the judge or jury deciding the case would allocate a percentage of fault to the victim, and adjust the verdict in proportion to the parties' fault - or even eliminate an award where a plaintiff was more than 50% responsible for his own injury? Such adjustments already occur, Mr. Murray, and they have existed for hundreds of years at common law. I am surprised you don't know that.
Charles Murray - You promise to create millions of jobs, but many people who run businesses say that nothing in your life has taught you how much effort, risk and sometimes heartbreak goes into creating one real job. Could you describe your experiences when you last had to meet a payroll, or when your boss had to meet a payroll?
Mr. Murray, as a Senator I have an office staff, which I manage, and for which I have a budget. This is not really different from any other mid-management position. In terms of "making payroll", during the Clinton Presidency the government made payroll and turned a tidy profit - call it an enormous budget surplus. Under Bush, the government cannot make payroll, and has borrowed astronomical figures to make ends meet. Call it a record-breaking budget deficit. If you are suggesting that President Bush's dubious record in business is a qualification as President, the facts suggest something completely different.
Christie Whitman - You have been critical of President Bush's rejection of the Kyoto Protocol, yet in 1997 you joined 94 of your Senate colleagues in effectively rejecting its terms. What has changed to make you accept now what you then rejected?
Christie, as you know, President Bush has done far more than reject Kyoto. He has politicized the EPA, rejected scientific opinion, buried official reports, and has otherwise taken a very non-scientific approach to the issue of climate change. Meanwhile, evidence of climate change is all around us, perhaps nowhere more strikingly than in the President's brother's state of Florida. You ask what has changed? What hasn't changed? Whatever disagreement may exist as to its cause, climate change is very real and it would be a priority for any competent President.
Christie Whitman - The president's Clear Skies proposal calls for a 70 percent reduction in some of the worst air pollutants, including mercury, over the next decade. While the current Clean Air Act has made a difference, it is cumbersome, it almost always involves lengthy litigation that delays any benefits, and it doesn't set any specific level for the reduction of mercury. Why haven't you led the fight to avoid lawsuits and instead demand the results the president has advocated?
Christie, it is almost comical that you mention mercury levels, given that one of President Bush's first acts when he took office was to attempt to raise the acceptable level of mercury in drinking water - water than the men, women and children of this nation trust to be safe and clean. And while portions of the President's proposal would diminish harmful emissions, independent analysis indicates that it will be less effective in doing so than the existing legislation. You should also know from your extensive experience in government that "simpler" is not always "better". The President has attached a pretty name to a proposal which is in many ways a license to pollute. It is better to fix the existing legislation, flawed though it may be, than to replace it with a pro-industry bill - which is I guess what people like you would have us call "results" - that will damage our environment, and endanger the health of the people of this nation.
Stephen L. Carter - During the long period it would take to carry out your plan to improve the public schools, would you, in the interest of racial justice, support a system of vouchers to enable the parents of poor inner-city children to pay for private schooling to cover the transitional years? Throughout the five or more years that your plan envisions, many inner-city children will continue to receive substandard educations, and to suffer in other material and spiritual ways.
Stephen, I would of course encourage states to develop the systems they deemed necessary to ensure that inner city children get quality education during the transition, and states may well choose to use vouchers. But as you surely realize, you cannot "fix" a system by emptying it of its best students, nor can you transfer students into private schools and charter schools which don't exist. A voucher system does not magically create additional space in existing schools - that takes years, and as you have implicitly stated we can't wait. Unfortunately, opportunists who latch on to voucher and charter school programs can create cataclysmic failures for parents and students, as occured in California this fall when a single "charter school" provider failed, shuttering sixty schools around the state, and leaving 6,000 students scrambling to enroll elsewhere. You don't fix an educational system by diverting resources to untested programs and profiteers.
Stephen L. Carter - If the answer to the first question is no, would you call on well-to-do Democrats to show their support for public education, and for the poor, by voluntarily sending their children to the schools that the inner-city parents are required to use? After all, a sudden influx of middle-class families might force a cure for many of those schools' deficiencies.
Stephen, as you know, that is a ridiculous question. I want to ensure that all parents, rich or poor, receive quality education. I don't begrudge President Bush his years at Andover, Yale and Harvard, even though his well-connected family might have pressed for serious improvement in any public schools he might have instead attended, because they wanted to provide him with the best education and opportunities. That, as you know, is achieved by making the system better, not through absurd stunts such as the one you propose. I wouldn't ask you to send your children to the worst school you could find, merely to prove a point, and if I did I would fully expect you to reject my invitation. Where did your kids go to school?
Stephen L. Carter - If the answer to the second question is no, are there any sacrifices that you would call upon middle-class Americans to make for the sake of improving the condition of the worst-off among us?
Stephen, perhaps you aren't aware of this, but the middle class pays a tremendous price to fund the public education system. States like Michigan have enacted elaborate systems to create fairness in educational funding, such that the City of Detroit has funding per pupil which exceeds the state average. Again, I am very surprised that you don't know this, but the middle classes are already contributing.
David K. Shipler - You speak of "compassionate conservatism," yet you rarely talk about the poverty that afflicts millions of Americans, including many who work hard at low-wage jobs. Your administration has inadequately financed or reduced the budgets of housing, child care, job training and other programs vital to helping the working poor. What do you see as government's proper role, and how would you change policies in a second term to demonstrate true compassion?
David, there is a difference between being "compassionate" and giving handouts. If I see a vagrant on a street and give him change, I may subsidize a sandwich, or perhaps a bottle of booze, but I do nothing to lift him out of his situation. I see the government's role as being to help people climb the ladder, not to subsidize them so that they are comfortable sitting on the floor when they could be climing. Not that I like to resort to the cliche, but compassionate conservativism is a hand up, not a handout. It's teaching a man to fish. There's no compassion in keeping poor people poor, even if you make their poverty somewhat more comfortable. You display compassion by helping them to achieve.
David K. Shipler - The federal government has begun to finance "faith-based initiatives." Previously, religious groups had to create separate, secular entities to receive federal money for services for the poor. Now, grants go to religious organizations that can discriminate against people of other faiths in hiring. Some will inevitably use tax dollars to promote their religious beliefs. Are you trying to break down the First Amendment's wall separating church and state?
No. Further, the Supreme Court is the final arbiter of the boundaries between church and state, and to the best of my knowledge my proposals have been held constitutional. What I will not do is put arbitrary hurdles in front of an organization that wants to help people, merely because it is affiliated with a religious organization.
David K. Shipler - Using the Patriot Act and other means, you have tried to evade the courts and minimize the rights of those accused of terrorism. Your administration has conducted searches without warrants, obtained gag orders on those forced to turn over records, monitored conversations between lawyers and their clients, employed unverified intelligence reports in criminal proceedings, and claimed the power to imprison Americans indefinitely without indictment or trial. Now that a couple of major cases have collapsed, what proof exists that these measures are actually being used against the right people? How many terrorist plots have they foiled?
David, you have asked a lot of questions there, perhaps because you are aware that your questions don't stand on an individual basis. On September 11, 2001, our nation faced a terrorist attack on an unprecedented scale, and it became obvious that we needed to root out sleeper cells which might be planning additional attacks on our people. Congress passed the legislation required to achieve that necessary end. How many terrorist plots has this foiled? So far, on the home front, all of them. But we can't drop our guard, because while we have to succeed 100% of the time the terrorists only have to succeed once. Congress is presently revisiting provisions of the Patriot Act which are due to expire under the sunset provisions of that legislation, and if provisions are deemed unnecessary Congress will presumably permit them to expire.
Alice M. Rivlin - According to your former Treasury secretary, Paul O'Neill, Vice President Dick Cheney believes that "deficits don't matter." Do you agree with the vice president? If so, why promise to cut the deficit in half in your next term? If not, what dangers do you think large sustained deficits pose for our economy? Do you worry about burdening your daughters and their children with rapidly growing federal debt and interest payments?
Alice, I have expressed that deficits matter, and I have expressed that I intend to halve the deficit over the next four years. It is not always bad to have a deficit - sometimes it is necessary to stimulate the economy, and sometimes it is the necessary result of national emergency, sometimes both. And that's what we faced after 9/11. But I have consistently advocated for eliminating the deficit.
Alice M. Rivlin - You say that you want to allow young workers to put part of their Social Security taxes into personal accounts. They could invest these accounts in stocks or bonds and leave them to their heirs. At the same time, you promise not to reduce scheduled benefits for current and soon-to-be retirees. But taxes paid by working people are used to pay benefits to current retirees. If the taxes paid by younger workers are diverted to their personal accounts, where will the money come from to pay those benefits? Would you try to borrow the additional money (estimated to be at least $1 trillion)? Would you take money from other programs? Would you raise taxes?
Alice, obviously the plan would be for a savings program that also permits Social Security to continue to self-fund. That would not require any new taxes or debt.
Alice M. Rivlin - In a recent open letter, 169 economists and business school professors, including 56 professors from Harvard Business School, your alma mater, sharply criticized your economic policies. They said your proposals for Social Security and making the tax cuts permanent "only promise to exacerbate the crisis" and that "your tax policy has exacerbated the problem of inequality in the United States." Do you dismiss these critics as uninformed? If not, what would you say to persuade them they are wrong?
Alice, if you have ever tried to have a discussion with a group of economists, you would know that they rely upon theoretical models, and they frequently disagree over the most basic of economic projections, and it just so happens that they disagree with this Administration's economic advisers. For every fifty six economists who are adamant that their projections are 100% right, there are countless others who are just as certain that they are 100% wrong. The classic joke about an economist, stuck at a bottom of a hole, is that his solution for escaping is "first, we assume a ladder". With all due respect to Harvard's economists, life gets more complicated outside the ivory tower.
Alan Ehrenhalt - As a candidate in 2000, you argued in favor of compassionate conservatism and a restoration of decency and moderation to the national government. Those of us who voted for you took this seriously. But your personal demeanor as president has been belligerent and dismissive of virtually anyone who opposes your policies. You state flatly that anyone who is not with you is against you, and at least imply that disagreement is equivalent to disloyalty. You refuse to admit making mistakes, even when it is obvious that you made them. You all but invite attacks on the country with "bring it on" taunting that makes you sound more like a gang leader than a responsible head of state. What happened to your promise of compassion? Have you concluded that moderation and decency are not useful qualities in a president?
How can I respond to your question without first observing that, as you caricature and misrepresent my statements and record, you engage in the very conduct you are supposedly criticizing me for having done. I have already addressed the compassion my Administration seeks to bring, and I am sorry that it is not the welfare state you want. There we disagree, and there, presumably, despite all evidence of the failures of the welfare state, you will stick adamantly and without reflection to your desire for the expansion of the failed welfare state. Moderation and decency are very useful qualities in a President. But adhering to a failed welfare policy is not moderate, is not decent, and is just plain wrong.
Alan Ehrenhalt - When you were governor of Texas, you complained about the long list of mandates that Washington was imposing on the states without supplying the money to pay for them. You criticized the Republican Congress for ignoring legitimate state complaints. "Mandates are mandates, regardless of the philosophical bent of the person doing the mandating," you said in May 1998. "It starts at the White House." But your administration has imposed billions of dollars in mandates without even a pretense of offering sufficient money for states to meet them. Did your concern for fairness to Texas and the 49 other state governments simply evaporate when you moved into the White House?
Alan, I am not sure what you are trying to criticize. You don't appear to have a problem with unfunded mandates, just the fact that I have in the past criticized them. I think if you had a problem with any particular mandate I have created, or had evidence that it was unfunded, you would have presented it as an example. The usual example people bring up of a supposedly "unfunded" mandate is "No Child Left Behind". Yet that Act brought billions of dollars of federal revenue to the states. While you seem to think that we can tax and spend, tax and spend without regard to consequences, we face real world budget constraints. You surely aren't proposing that we eliminate "No Child Left Behind", so are you asking me to raise taxes? People who want to pay more taxes already know who to vote for, and it's not me.

Monday, October 11, 2004

Things I "Learned" In Law School


Over on mythago's blog, there is a brief discussion of the insurance industry-sponsored venture known as "tort reform", and the extent to which the insurance industry distorts facts - or just plain fabrications - in their effort to advance industry-friendly litigation. A couple of example fabrications, described in the Washington Monthly, brought back fond memories of law school....
In 1977, the venerable insurance company Crum & Forester sponsored one of the first print ads that included what would become a staple of anti-lawsuit rhetoric: the fictional lawsuit horror story. The ad told the story of a guy who collected a $500,000 jury verdict after he was injured using a lawnmower as a hedge clipper. The agency later conceded that it had no factual basis for the story, but that didn't keep it from circulating widely in the media and in conservative political speeches.
More than ten years later, my torts professor related this story as being about a man who had cut off his thumbs while using a lawn mower as a hedge trimmer. (Think about that for a minute - even if you were to try to cut a hedge with a lawn mower, how could you hold it such that it would be your thumbs which were injured?) A quick Nexis search confirmed the story to have been a fabrication. Another example came from a different professor, I believe in Civil Procedure:
Back in 1986, [60 Minutes] profiled the owner of a ladder manufacturing company who claimed his company had been hit with a $300,000 jury verdict in a suit by a man who fell off a ladder because he set it in a pile of manure. The business owner claimed the lawsuit alleged the company should have warned buyers of the dangers of setting ladders in dung. The real lawsuit had nothing to do with manure; the ladder had broken with less than 450 pounds on it, even though it had a safety rating that said it could support up to 1,000. Tedesco says the show never ran a correction.
That story, also, was recounted as fact.

Another portion reminded me of a recent effort to discuss issues of malpractice with doctors. One kept bringing up the claim that the medical industry wastes $100 billion per year on "defensive medicine" - never mind that not one doctor in the discussion would admit to having ever engaged in defensive medicine, and not one could explain why an HMO or other managed care organization would pay for medical care it did not deem necessary. One claimed that an example of "defensive medicine" was the provision of pregnancy tests to infertile women before certain radiological procedures - although, given that infertile women cannot conceivably suffer fetal injury, it is not at all apparent how this could be classified as "defensive" as opposed to "stupid" or "profit-maximizing". Obviously, if we include profiteering and stupidity in the definition of "defensive medicine", it will be possible to derive an exhorbitant price tag. But generally, it is easier to just fabricate the price, and get it embedded in the public consciousness:
Take the idea of a "tort tax," the financial hit allegedly taken by every citizen because of the legal system, which Taylor raised in his December Newsweek article. It dates back to 1988, when Manhattan Institute fellow Peter Huber coined the term in his book, Liability, and claimed that the tort system cost Americans $300 billion a year. Three years later, the figure made its way into a speech given by Vice President Dan Quayle, who blamed lawyers for wrecking the economy. After the speech, several researchers examined the methods Huber had used to arrive at that figure. Huber, they found, had simply made it up. As The Economist observed in 1992, "the $300 billion figure has no discernible connection to reality."
What was also interesting was seeing that the doctors had no conception of the actual cost of medical malpractice, which the insurance industry estimates at 2 - 3% of the health care dollar, subject to being reduced by approximately 0.4 - 0.5% if all current "tort reform" measures are implemented. And the current "reforms" would have no effect on "defensive medicine", because they are uniformly aimed at limiting the recovery of the most injured victims of malpractice in the most meritorious cases.

Meanwhile, the same doctors who obsessively whinge about trial lawyers, malpractice liability, and the "need" for the tort reform measures which will "save" at most a half-percent of health care costs... yawn at the notion of eliminating bureaucratic inefficiency that results in the outright waste of 10 - 20% of every health care dollar.

My own experience supports the article's observation that most tort recoveries are small, and many tort victims are undercompensated. I also have experience receiving inquiries from people who have come to see the tort system as a slot machine, where an inconsequential or effectively self-inflicted injury can return millions. This, as the Washington Monthly points out, is an impression created largely by the insurance industry's own, decades-long disinformation campaign.
Some academic researchers suspect that all the hype about the litigation crisis might actually be making Americans more litigious by giving them the erroneous impression that compensation is available through the courts for most injuries. As McCann says, "Tort reformers may have produced more frivolous claims while making legitimate claims harder to bring."

Saturday, October 09, 2004

Executing An Innocent (But Unsavory) Person?


The New York Times today gives a cursory cry of "injustice" to the case of Paul Gregory House, who appears to be on death row for a murder he did not commit. The Times notes that the en banc Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit split down partisan lines (according to which party appointed them), with the Republican appointees voting to keep Mr. House on track for execution and the Democratic appointees voting for acquittal or a new trial. The Times opines
It's hard to dismiss the thought that the Republicans voted as a show of support for capital punishment, not on the merits of the case.
More likely, it was a vote for "finality" - literally for form over substance - although not as explicitly stated as in some other cases. (Read the opinions - PDF Format)

The majority opinion is not unconvincing, until you read the dissent and learn the facts the majority conveniently omitted to make its rendering seem plausible. It is difficult to justify not granting at least a new trial if you actually look to the facts. But the Republicans in the House and Senate, and the Rehnquist Supreme Court, have long been pushing for "reforms" of the appellate process and the right of habeas corpus which place a near-exclusive emphasis on "procedural due process" and diminish the importance of "substantive due process". That is to say, if all of the procedural rules were sufficiently followed, and a conviction resulted, the preference of many "conservatives" is to uphold the conviction in the name of "finality". Arbitrary deadlines and restrictions have been imposed on the use of exculpatory evidence discovered after conviction.

And if a some innocent people rot in prison, or perhaps even suffer execution at the hands of the state, our conscience can be clean - because whatever the facts, we know that the I's were dotted and the T's were crossed, and the need for "finality" must sometimes be placed ahead of facts establishing innocence. Right? (And as any good fascist can tell you, if you're innocent and in prison, you probably deserve to be there for some other crime anyway.)

Friday, October 08, 2004

A Closing For Kerry


If you recall the Presidential debates eight years ago, you will recall the friendly presence of a President who was not angry and combative, who did not feel a need to continually insult his opponent. A President unafraid to admit his mistakes, but confident in his accomplishments. A President who was comfortable with his record, and had no need to be hostile and angry. Today, you have a President who is hostile and embittered, insulting and angry, because he knows his record cannot withstand scrutiny.

Wednesday, October 06, 2004

Non Sequitur


On the VP debate,
But Ken Mehlman, Mr Bush's campaign manager, told the Guardian the vice-president had made clear the fundamental philosophical differences between the two tickets. "He was saying in a world where 19 people with boxcutters can kill 3,000 Americans in the course of 20 minutes, allowing to remain in power a brutal dictator who defied the world, who had a weapons of mass destruction capability... wasn't acceptable and wasn't safe.
Does that follow? Maybe we should have invaded China, as that is probably where the boxcutters were made....

This Is Sad....


A Bush supporter penned a blog entry for the Racine, WI "Journal Times", entitled "The vice president strikes back".
Cheney easily quoted facts and figures, names and situations, voting records and current trends with the ease that some of us quote "Simpsons" episodes. (Or "Star Wars" movies.)
Um... Leaving the fact-checking to others for the moment, the author expects us to be impressed that Cheney's abilities parallel her uncanny ability to quote "Star Wars"? So she is telling us that we should cast our votes for Senator Palpatine? (Does that put GW in the role of Darth Vader?)

The Vice Presidential Debate


What to me was perhaps the most significant result of the VP debate was the fact that, as combative and pointed as it often was, it had no estimable impact on my opinion. That is, nothing about the Vice Presidential candidates or their respective performances had an appreciable impact on how I view the heads of their respective tickets. That might not have been the case, had one of them had an on-stage meltdown, but obviously that didn't happen.

If I were to declare a "winner" in the context of which candidate looked most Presidential, it would be Edwards. If I were to declare a "loser" in the context of which candidate clung most desperately to a pathetic lie, it would be Cheney and his continued advancement of an Iraq-Al Qaeda nexus with an implied link to 9/11.

If I were to give a candidate bonus points for refusing to bend his personal convictions to the will of his party, they would go to Cheney for his silence on the issue of rights for domestic partnerships. Certainly it isn't bravery to sit in silence, rather than speaking one's conscience, but it demonstrated that there are lines Cheney will not cross with respect to his family and his party. When Cheney's boss was put to a similar test, and could have spoken out against the smear campaign over Kerry's war record, he failed - that is, unless his claimed personality traits of courage and credibility exist only as fiction. I am not sure that similar tests have yet been put to Edwards or Kerry.

At the same time, if I were to give penalty points for stubborn idiocy, it would be for Cheney's insistence that he would handle Iraq in exactly the same way if he were to do it again. That simply can't be true.

The "Zap Them With A Cattle Prod And Wake Them Up" award goes to Babbling David Brooks and Narcoleptic Mark Shields, who provided some post-debate commentary on PBS. They found the Iraq material exciting, but were bored by the domestic issues. Thus, declared Brooks, this election really does turn on Iraq. What a pathetic way to prioritize the many important issues this nation faces.

Tuesday, October 05, 2004

David Brooks On Crack


No, not that type of crack.
The coming elections and the battles for the cities will either put Iraq on a path to normalcy or introduce us to some new hell. Yesterday, Rumsfeld said Iraq had "a crack" at being a success. At least he's not overhyping.
Mr. false dichotomy strikes again.

Saturday, October 02, 2004

A Detailed Plan For Iraq?


Throughout the campaign, the media have demanded that John Kerry detail a strategy for dealing with Iraq. Never mind that the situation has changed dramatically, month-by-month, throughout the campaign. Never mind that even if it were possible to propose a "perfect solution" for today's situation, that solution would be hopelessly out-of-date by January. Never mind that, no matter what the plan, the Bush Campaign would ridicule any element that it could not coopt. (That led to the recent pecularity, following Kerry's first clear speech on an Iraq plan, in which the unreflective Bush Campaign declared through parallel statements to the media, "His ideas are the same as ours" and "He's advocating 'defeat and retreat'".) Never mind that no similar demand has been made of the Bush Campaign.

I'll give David Ignatius this much - at least he's breaking with the nonsensical pattern of demanding the challenger to outline precisely what he would do in Iraq while failing to make any similar demand of the Bush Campaign. But any person who can assert,
The coming offensive in Fallujah could be the bloodiest combat that U.S. forces have faced yet in Iraq. Worse, it could push interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi's fragile interim government toward the breaking point. One early warning sign was this week's comment by interim President Ghazi Yawar, a Sunni Muslim, criticizing recent U.S. airstrikes on Fallujah as "collective punishment." It was Yawar's threat to quit the interim government last April that helped halt the previous U.S. offensive in Fallujah.
has to also know that a strategy for the present situation in Iraq, let alone an exit strategy, could be dramatically changed by the success or failure of such a venture - and that even a military success could result in a profound setback if it inspires the collapse of the Allawi government, broadens the "resistance", or prevents elections.

Ignatius continues,
If you try to put yourself in the boots of a U.S. soldier in Iraq, what you want to know from the candidates is: Can we win this thing, and if not, how can we get out? Unfortunately, the debate didn't really illuminate those essential questions. The most difficult days in Iraq may well lie ahead, but neither candidate has leveled with the country about how severe that test will be, or what fallback plans he has if his assumptions prove overly optimistic.
The questions are not entirely unfair, but Ignatius again ignores the fact that what might work today might not work tomorrow, let alone next month. The answer to "can we win this thing" seemed a bit different when Bush was strutting beneath his "Mission Accomplished" banner than it does today - and the colossal mistakes made since that time make it much less likely that we will achieve the results we most desire. Then, "winning" was defined as creating a stable nation with a secular, democratic government. Today, "winning" seems to be defined as achieving stability, preventing civil war, and creating a government that is not hostile to western interests. Would Ignatius call a plan to achieve that end a plan for victory?

Bush, the person in the best position to provide the type of answers Ignatius demands, won't provide them. His answers would be an admission of the failure of his central promises in the "liberation" of Iraq, and would also reveal that he has no "exit strategy". And his campaign can't simultaneously accuse Kerry of "defeat and retreat" while simultaneously proposing Bush's plan for doing precisely what he ridicules.

Bush would love for Kerry to paint a strategic picture on Iraq that addresses the present realities. "See how negative and pessimistic he is. Defeat and retreat. He's setting back our interests in the region." Columnists like Ignatius need to place the onus on the Bush Administration to announce its plan - to which the Kerry camp could then be called upon to respond with what it would do differently. And Bush knows that had he clearly enunciated his plan for Iraq and "exit strategy", he would have had to update the plan so frequently as to be (in his parlance) the quintessential flip-flopper, or would have had to repeatedly admit failure. Or both.

Perhaps, before being allowed to write columns like this, columnists like Ignatius should be required to propose their own plans to achieve victory in Iraq, and their ideas of a viable exit strategy. Perhaps such a demand would be the only thing that would wake them up to the realities of the situation, and why their demands are rather silly.

Leading Them By The Nose....


When I hear criticisms of Kerry as the Democratic candidate, I am often left wondering what it is that inspires those criticisms. That is, the speakers will declare something silly like, "Kerry doesn't excite me", or "He was picked because he was considered the most electable", as if... as if either statement has any significance, or as if parties should pick unelectable candidates. Or "Bush reminds me of a guy I'd drink a beer with", or "I like his swagger and confidence - he's like me" (which is pretty much what a blue collar attendee at a Nascar event said a few months back - as if Bush is anything like him). When you hear something more substantive, such as "Kerry flip-flops", and press for details, you're lucky if you get any. In my experience, pressing for details reveals these comments to be inspired not by the candidate, but by news coverage of supposed voter ambivalence and of the other side's attack ads.

I am often left to wonder what these people want in a candidate. Whose idea is it that you should want a candidate you would drink a beer with, or that you shouldn't want a candidate who instead drinks wine and likes fancy food? Or that you should have an (unelectable) candidate who excites you, rather than a staid, intelligent, and competent candidate who seems, well, staid, intelligent, and competent instead of "exciting". The media, I suppose, started to buy into the packaging and selling of a candidate, over the substance and competence of a candidate, after the Nixon-Kennedy debates. So "Dukakis looks silly in that helmet"-type nonsense often becomes the media's central focus, as opposed to the candidates' positions on the issues. (The media's distractability was very well highlighted by their response to the "Swift Boat Liars" nonsense - and the effort of even the New York Times to blame a candidate for its poor work. Sure, Dukakis didn't have to put on the helmet and get into the tank, but was that really a story?)

If you were "surprised" by John Kerry's performance at the first Presidential debate - which he is widely regarded as having "won" - here's some news for you: If you had been paying attention to the candidate as opposed to the spin, you wouldn't have been surprised.

You want a candidate who thinks in simple terms and speaks in pre-packaged sound bites, instead of one who understands the world's complexities and whose comments reflect thought and abstraction? Perhaps, then, you should do us a favor and limit yourself to voting for the county dog catcher. If you want more from a candidate, stop regurgitating the media's latest spin, and start listening to what the candidates are actually saying.

Thursday, September 30, 2004

Party Affiliation & Polling


Here's a real shock - USA Today presents a table demonstrating that when polls include disproportionate numbers of people from one party or the other, the results of the poll skew toward the overrepresented party. With all due respect to Gallup's rationalizations for releasing polls which overrepresent self-identified Republicans, I think critics do understand the science (or lack thereof) behind this type of polling.

Wednesday, September 29, 2004

"Bad Baby" Cases


That sounds a bit strange, right? Maybe it has something to do with a small child who won't behave? Actually, it's lingo that some lawyers use to describe malpractice cases involving birth injuries. Realizing that most professions at times use expressions that are a bit unseemly, I can't get used to that particular example.

There are cases of obstetric malpractice which are truly appalling. But, as everybody knows, not all birth injuries are the fault of the doctor. And there is validity to complaints about lawsuits being filed over alleged birth injuries when causation can't be made more certain than a coin toss. Very few lawyers engage in this type of litigation - on the one hand, fortunately, there aren't that many cases to be litigated in any given state; on the other hand, it is far too costly a gamble for those who can't afford to specialize in this type of litigation. Very few attorneys can risk $100,000.00 or more in up-front costs on a coin toss. And, although doctors may argue otherwise, very few attorneys would want to engage in this type of practice.

The way it works is this: there's a birth case, where the baby has a serious injury that might be a birth injury, or it might be a congenital disorder for which the doctor has no fault. The medical evidence is equivocal - so the defense hires "experts" who testify that it was congenital or was an unavoidable consequence of birth, and the plaintiff hires "experts" who argue that the injury was caused by medical malpractice. The same experts often make a very handsome living from their testimony alone, be it for the malpractice insurance carrier or the plaintiff. The jury is then asked to pick a side by a "preponderance of the evidence" - which is why I referenced the coin toss. Whether one side persuades the jury that the plaintiff only proved a 49% likelihood of malpractice or a 51% likelihood of malpractice may turn more on external factors - such as whether the defendant doctor seemed arrogant when he testified, or whether the plaintiff came across as a greedy opportunist - than on the evidence.

If the lawyer wins one case out of two, the strategy is a big-time moneymaker.

There's another side to this type of litigation. It is this paradigm which is used as the rationale for sweeping "tort reform" measures which are designed not to make the jury's fact-finding more accurate, or to prevent the filing of "frivolous suits", but which are aimed directly at the most seriously injured victims of malpractice. The cry is that "obstetricians and neurologists pay too much for malpractice insurance", with the illogic that this necessarily means that all doctors should thus receive broad protections from liability for their mistakes - no matter how egregious the physician's conduct, and no matter how severe the patient's injury.

I'm all for hearing proposals from physicians on how to make the birth injury situation more fair. (Or, for that matter, the somewhat similar situation for neurosurgeons, who may end up being sued as the result of a horrific maloccurrence - a fancy word for a 'bad outcome' - from a high risk surgery, even in the absence of malpractice.) But when it comes to making the system better, doctors and their lobbyists are almost universally silent. They instead want to arbitrarily limit the damages received by the most seriously injured victims of malpractice, in the most meritorious of cases. That's at least as immoral as going to court on a coin toss over a "bad baby" case.

Bad Coverage of Bad Polls


As poor as U.S. news coverage can be of the important issues of the day, it perhaps isn't surprising that CNN's coverage is particularly bad when it turns its spotlight on itself. CJR Campaign Desk observes CNN's coverage of MoveOn's criticism of the methodology of recent CNN/Gallup polls:
Anchor Judy Woodruff began by briefly outlining MoveOn's complaint: "[R]ecent polls have shown George W. Bush leading John Kerry and MoveOn.org claims Gallup's polling techniques exaggerate Republican support." Woodruff then gave Gallup editor-in-chief Frank Newport almost three minutes to respond, uninterrupted, to the charges. Naturally, Newport defended Gallup's methodology, but essentially asked viewers to take it on faith that he knows what he's doing.

Tuesday, September 28, 2004

Afraid of Hardball Questions


The Bush campaign can reasonably anticipate the type of softball questioning of past debates - but they apparently fear that hard questions might be posed by the guy at the other lectern, so....
Still, officials of the debate commission said they were agreeing primarily to those things Mr. Bush's aides had emphasized as especially important to them: a strict time limit on candidate responses, an electronic warning when candidates exceed their speaking time that can be seen and heard by viewers at home, and a prohibition against the candidates' directly posing questions to each other.
Gotta keep the ugly truths from being aired....

Tax Returns as Public Information?


In London's Guardian, a columnist notes that the rich are getting away with paying far less than their fair share of taxes, but that the country's politicians seem to have little interest in closing loopholes and creating a fairer system. (Sound familiar?)
So, if the super-rich won't pay because no one's interested in making them pay, what on earth can be done? How can the public's interest in fair taxation be revived? How could the government find the courage to stop the tax cheats?

I have a cruel and unusual proposal: everyone's tax returns should be published. If the teachers and dustmen of this country could see that certain multi-millionaires are paying less tax than they are, they'd be so angry that the government would surely be obliged to act.
(I think the teachers and dustmen would first check the tax returns of their neighbors and supervisors, and the media would certainly go after controvercial public figures and politicians.... But most people would probably be very uncomfortable with the disclosure of their personal financial information.)

Monday, September 27, 2004

Common Sense, Ohio Style?


The Dayton for Kerry website has reproduced an article (PDF format) describing how Ohio's Secretary of State, J. Kenneth Blackwell, has declared that counties must ignore voter registration cards submitted on paper stock of less than 80# weight.
The requirement is because the forms are designed to be mailed like post-cards and must be thick enough to survive mechanical sorters at the U.S. Post Office, according to Blackwell's spokesman Carlo LoParo.

"Our directive stands and it is specifically in place to protect new registrants to make sure the forms are not destroyed," LoParo said.
Yes, you heard that right. In order to protect registrants from having their registration forms destroyed in the mail, those which arrive intact but aren't on sufficiently thick paper stock are to be discarded.

To make sure that this new ruling is fair and consistent in its application, Blackwell has exempted Cuyahoga County from the rule, and has additionally declared that registration forms downloaded from the federal Elections Assistance Agency must be accepted regardless of the paper they are printed on.

Sunday, September 26, 2004

Suicide


It can be difficult to mark the moment when self-confidence turns into gradiosity, or when a suspicious nature turns into paranoia, particularly in someone you see regularly. But when you speak with somebody only a few times a year, the progression is more marked.

When we lived in the same community, I knew somebody who would at times share theories of conspiracies which were, for the most part, plausible but unlikely. He was an intelligent professional, and he spun a lot of fact into his stories.

At some point, his theories became far more involved and personal. He became deeply wedded to the notion of a conspiracy reaching to the highest levels of government, in which he was the target of a range of efforts to discredit him or to have him killed, because the nation's most powerful people were afraid of what would happen if the world found out what he knew.

I wonder if there was more that could be done to help, but at the same time recognize that every effort to provide assistance was greeted with suspicion, and that the more aggressive efforts at intervention inspired new conspiracy theories, with those attempting to help transformed into villains trying to destroy him. There was no chance of getting court intervention, as he gave no evidence of being a danger to himself or others, and was quite rational when addressing issues other than his paranoid fantasies.

The most aggressive effort at intervention, which pressured him to seek voluntary, intensive psychiatric care or possibly lose his professional license, backfired. He put himself beyond the reach of everybody who wanted to help him, and was largely isolated for the past year. He contacted me every few months, and we even discussed on a few occasions how I might be able to help him, but unfortunately he didn't follow through. A couple of times I must have pressed too hard, as I received emails indicating that I was forgiven (for whatever it was that I had been perceived to have done), but that he knew that I was nonetheless "one of the good guys".)

I hadn't heard from him for quite a few months, then learned of is death through the proverbial grapevine. I can't say that I am surprised at this outcome, but I am saddened.

Saturday, September 25, 2004

It's All The UN's Fault


Today, Babbling Brooks blames the impasse on Darfur on the United Nations - the poor United States did everything right, but those darn diplomats in the UN just won't move on the crisis. But, funny, nowhere in his column does he discuss the Security Council resolution the United States submitted to the Council demanding the declaration that events in Darfur constitute genocide, demanding military intervention, calling for the dispatch of peacekeeping forces, or authorizing any nation to intervene to stop the bloodshed. What? You mean, the U.S. didn't submit any such resolution? Go figure. As As Nat Hentoff points out:
On September 18, the U.N. General Assembly passed a watered-down U.S.-sponsored resolution saying "it shall consider" possible oil sanctions on Sudan, but not, at the present time, any sanctions against Khartoum's murderous leaders.
So what Mr. Brooks seemingly means is that the U.S. engaged in a series of diplomatic moves meant to make Bush look good, but without taking any constructive or binding steps toward ending the violence. Without exercising genuine diplomacy, to overcome international resistance to effective intervention, or to build an actual coalition which might act. Which, as it seems, is all Babbling Brooks wants of his beloved President.

Nat Hentoff, while criticizing both parties for their falure to take a stand on this issue, also points out:
John Kerry, at the National Baptist Convention in New Orleans, in a speech hardly mentioned in the media except notably by Stanley Crouch in the September 13 Daily News, "got a standing ovation by calling on President Bush to take leadership in 'the immediate deployment of an effective international force to disarm militia and facilitate the delivery of humanitarian assistance in Darfur.'"
So one might expect Babbling Brooks to expend a sentence or two endorsing Kerry's position. Or suggesting that, as Kerry indicated, the President could do more about the situation. Or expressing that it is a shame that the President chose a watered-down resolution over the type of authorization Kerry called for.

Well, no. If you know the work of Babbling Brooks you had no such expectation - something that might reflect a modicum of insight or balance. If you read Brooks and actually expect such balance, I leave you with the words of Homer Simpson.

Thursday, September 23, 2004

Come On Now, Be Strange


Well, that's how I heard the lyric when I was three. Apparently, Tom Ridge still hears it that way - and takes it as an imperative.

I'm Dogbert?


Okay, a bit scary, but it definitely could be worse. Who are you - Wally?

Wednesday, September 22, 2004

Newsclowns At Work


How to write a headline, from CJR Campaign Desk.

(For explanation of the term "newsclown", please see the works of Philip K. Dick.)

Forged Documents


In case you were thinking that the prior two posts represented the worst of Today's issue of the times.... Wrong! That prize goes to Bill Safire, who declares,
Some person or persons conceived a scheme to create a series of false ... documents and append a photocopied signature to one of them. ... Who was the forger? Did others conspire with him or her to present a seeming government document - with knowledge of its falsity and with intent to defraud...? Who was to benefit and how?
Wow. Is Safire reconsidering his blind support for Chalabi's declaration that he had thousands of documents establishing unprecedented corruption and avarice, provign that pretty much every anti-War voice in the West had received bribes from the "Oil for Food" Program? Um... no.

Well, then.... Perhaps Safire is reconsidering his blind support for the childish forgeries which "proved" that Iraq was trying to obtain uranium from Niger? Um... that wouldn't be it either.

Actually, as you may have guessed, Safire's peevishness is directed at CBS, for airing forged documents about Bush's (non-)service in the National Guard. And, surprise - he's as conspiratorial as ever (perhaps a side-effect of his work in the Nixon Administration):
What benefit did the Bush-hating Burkett gain from CBS in return for his fake documents? One plausible answer: he got coveted access to someone high up in the Kerry campaign.
Sure. CBS is secretly brokering contacts between its confidential sources and "someone high up" in the Kerry Campaign.... And Ahmed Chalabi has the proof, if only those evil Kerry supporters hadn't somehow persuaded the Bush Administration to accuse him of funneling highly classified information to Iran (which, fortunately for Chalabi who is now safely ensconced in Tehran, frequently offers asylum to supporters of the U.S. who have not lent it any aid or comfort), simultaneously allowing a band of thugs to raid one of his investigator's offices and steal each and every document, whether on paper or in electronic form (including all backup copies) which would have documented the claim.

Oh, excuse me - I got this story crossed with Chalabi's story about "oil for food" which, as expressed in the idiotorial under discussion, Safire believes.

Kristof's Cure for Negative Campaigning


Boy, why didn't anybody else think of this?
The only hope for stopping the mudslinging is if well-meaning people try to police their own side.
Now that such a brilliant idea has been presented, certainly both sides will actively police against distortions of the record and muckraking in their own ads, and the ads of their supporters, and will actively condemn any misrepresentation. After all, it is better to lose an election than to win dishonorably.

Right?

"That Was Yesterday"


Apparently the Times disagrees with what it said yesterday, and thus in another unsigned editorial it declares,
It was sad that Mr. Kerry's commendable war record was clouded by the more outrageous of the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth's attacks, and it was somewhat surprising that Mr. Bush's National Guard service again became a big topic of debate.
Well, I guess they didn't technically contradict yesterday's claim that it was Kerry's fault that the outrageous Swift Boat Liar ads (that "keep on coming") and discussion of Bush's record (yes, yesterday that was Kerry's fault as well) clouded the issues. But they did suggest that other forces played a role.

Let's think for a moment.... Why is it "news" whenever new details Bush's poor service in the national guard emerge? Could it be because Bush has steadfastly refused to come clean about that record? Bush could have closed the book on this a long time ago, but instead, for political gain, chooses to misrepresent his service and his use and abuse of family political connections to get in and out of the Guard. Perhaps there's even an element of newsworthiness to that story? Or in the continuing saga of, "When we disclosed all of Bush's records, we somehow missed these key documents."

(As to the part of the editorial that compares past New York Times experience to present CBS pain from basing a story on "inadequately vetted documents from a highly questionable source", the analogy that comes to mind is not of Jayson Blair but of Judith Miller's atrociously bad prewar coverage on Iraq. For which the Times has paid no discernible price.)

Tuesday, September 21, 2004

Is This For Real?


Of course it is, and it serves as yet another reminder as to why newspapers publish unsigned editorials - in most cases they are poorly reasoned and nobody wants to take responsibility for them. Today's New York Times provides a case in point,
After weeks of politically damaging delay, John Kerry finally seems to have found his voice on what ought to be the central issue of this year's election: the mismanaged war in Iraq and how to bring it to an acceptable conclusion. It was none too soon. While the fate of the Iraqi people, the success of the war on terrorism and America's international standing have all been teetering ominously in the balance, Mr. Kerry has allowed the presidential campaign to veer off into squabbles about events long past - like the candidates' 30-year-old war records - and about Mr. Kerry's confusing and sometimes contradictory recent statements on foreign policy.
Oh, sure. It is Mr. Kerry's fault that when he gave the media the opportunity to act responsibly in relation to those remote events, the media instead gave undivided attention to the rantings and ravings of the now-discredited Swift Boat Liars.

But I'm sure the Times is only speaking for itself, and that if we go back to its coverage of recent months we will see it repeatedly decrying the irrelevant distraction of those attack ads, as opposed to providing extensive coverage of the allegations. Right? (How short do they think our memories are?)

Sunday, September 19, 2004

Suicide and Antidepressants


There has been a lot of media coverage recently about youth suicide and antidepressants. The "post hoc, ergo propter hoc" story is essentially: a depressed young person goes on antidepressant therapy, subsequently commits suicide and thus the suicidal thoughts and behaviors were caused by the antidepressants (as opposed to, you know, the depression).

For those who have studied depression, it is a given that risk of suicide can increase following initiation of a successful treatment - that is, the severely depressed patient suddenly has more energy and can take more initiative, and is thus at increased risk of acting on sucidal thoughts. It follows that this will be the case with some younger patients who are responding to antidepressant therapy.

There is another factor at issue, which is that mental health care in this nation, particularly for depression, is now often handled by the family doctor. There are antidepressants which can cause agitation, or which can increase energy level, without necessarily providing an associated improvement in depressive symptoms. A health care provider might view the agitation or increased energy as evidence that "it is starting to work", but might not have the clinical awareness to know that such an increase in energy level could create risk of action on existing suicidal thoughts.

I think it is also true, from my discussions with people who have used even the current generation of "SSRI" antidepressant medications, that some people do experience changes in their thought patterns while taking SSRI's. I think it is pretty much taken for granted that such changes can be a side-effect of the older tricyclic and MAOI medications. Accordingly, it is appropriate for all patients trying a new antidepressant medication (and their doctors, and family members) to watch for any troubling changes.

I am not particularly impressed with the notion that SSRI's dont' work for teenagers, based upon narrow studies of particular SSRI medications, as it seems to be broadly the case that some people will not respond to particular antidepressant medications. Many depressed people have to try several medications, and in some cases pretty much all of them, before they find one that works for them. It is possible along the way to become discouraged, and assume that the only thing an antidepressant has to offer is a constellation of unpleasant side-effects. But if you find one that works for you, there will be no question left in your mind that an appropriate antidepressant has a genuine therapeutic value. Patients should not be deprived of that value merely because of their age - arguably (and in my opinion, almost certainly), it is the youngest patients who can see the greatest lifetime benefit from early, effective treatment.

It may well be that some SSRI's are less effective in younger patients - that should be studied, and the pharmaceutical companies have done their younger patients a disservice by pressing for (often off-label) prescriptions without having first tested their efficacy for kids and teens. If it turns out that some of those medications actually do not work in children or teenagers, or have higher levels of negative behavioral symptoms in young patients, the pharmaceutical companies which pushed for inappropriate use deserve any liability that follows.

Saturday, September 18, 2004

What You Believe, Or What You Do?


The Guardian brings us some thoughts on religion from Rabbi Dr Jonathan Romain, minister of Maidenhead synagogue:
When Richard Harries reviewed a previous book of mine, he said it was typically Jewish - 280 pages on what to do and 20 pages on what to believe, whereas if it had been a Christian publication, it would have been the other way round.

* * *

For Judaism, it is the practical consequences of belief in God that are important, not the belief itself. If God exists, then the world has a purpose, life has meaning, all people are equal and every individual matters. The prayers, too, are not so much for God's benefit but for ours. By praising God for caring for the living, supporting the fallen and healing the sick, we are effectively saying these are godly/goodly attributes and mapping out our own tasks.

Over the centuries, this has led to an emphasis on action rather than faith, to the extent that the latter has become assumed to the point of neglect. It gives rise to the saying - somewhat tongue-in-cheek but containing a sizable grain of truth - that "to be a good Jew, you don't have to believe in God, just do what He says".

For some Jews, this is a parody of a faith that is brim full of God's glory; for others, it is a welcome description of a religion whose strength is that the heretic is not the person who believes the wrong thing, but who does the wrong thing.
I think that the same can be said of a split within Christianity, between those who believe that Christianity should emphasize the manner in which Christ lived his life, with the goal being to apply those lessons to live a good and ethical life, and those sects which focus instead on the manner of Christ's death, as exemplified by Mel Gibson and his "The Passion of the Christ". To those who believe that your life's work is meaningless unless you are "born again", the notion of more secular Christians that the best of Christianity comes from living an ethical and moral life derived from Christ's teachings may also seem like a parody of faith. To the more secular, though, the "born again" Christian who expounds a devout piety while leading what amounts to an immoral life - whether limited to preaching hate and intolerance, or whether delving further into a personal exploration of the "seven deadly sins" - seems more the parody.

There are people in both secularized and evangelical branches of Christianity who embrace the moral and ethical lessons of Christ's life, but sometimes they have a hard time seeing each other.

Friday, September 17, 2004

Crappy Polling?


Why do we have yet another poll that is out-of-line with common sense and other polls, showing a sudden and huge lead for GW? The Left Coaster (which sounds a bit like something we Midwesterners put under our drinks to protect the coffee table) dared to ask Gallup:
Because the Gallup Poll, despite its reputation, assumes that this November 40% of those turning out to vote will be Republicans, and only 33% will be Democrat.
(emphasis in original). For historic reference, the coaster references John Zogby:
If we look at the three last Presidential elections, the spread was 34% Democrats, 34% Republicans and 33% Independents (in 1992 with Ross Perot in the race); 39% Democrats, 34% Republicans, and 27% Independents in 1996; and 39% Democrats, 35% Republicans and 26% Independents in 2000.
[Insert eyeroll here]