Friday, September 17, 2004

Crappy Polling?


Why do we have yet another poll that is out-of-line with common sense and other polls, showing a sudden and huge lead for GW? The Left Coaster (which sounds a bit like something we Midwesterners put under our drinks to protect the coffee table) dared to ask Gallup:
Because the Gallup Poll, despite its reputation, assumes that this November 40% of those turning out to vote will be Republicans, and only 33% will be Democrat.
(emphasis in original). For historic reference, the coaster references John Zogby:
If we look at the three last Presidential elections, the spread was 34% Democrats, 34% Republicans and 33% Independents (in 1992 with Ross Perot in the race); 39% Democrats, 34% Republicans, and 27% Independents in 1996; and 39% Democrats, 35% Republicans and 26% Independents in 2000.
[Insert eyeroll here]

2 comments:

  1. I thought this link was somewhat interesting.

    http://www.electoral-vote.com/pollsters/index.html

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  2. There's some coverage of this issue on CJR Campaign Desk, including an entry from yesterday. What to make of Pew?

    "A little history: Earlier this week, a Pew Research Center poll taken between September 8 and September 10 gave President Bush a whopping 15-point lead among likely voters. Then on Thursday, Pew reversed itself by announcing that a poll taken from September 11 to September 14 found Bush leading among likely voters by all of one point."

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