The Import of Pakistan

A couple of years ago I read Shame by Salman Rushdie - a tale set in a "fictional" nation which obviously represented Pakistan. I was left with a greater understanding of Pakistan, and the firm conviction that Salman Rushdie absolutely detests that nation. President Musharref seems, in many ways, like he stepped off the pages of that book.

Prior to 9/11, the United States was not exactly in Pakistan's cheering corner. In fact, there was considerable strain and concern, relating to Pakistan's rumored trade of weapons technology (including nuclear technology), its development of its own nuclear arsenal, and its conflict with India over Kashmir (with at best indifference and at worst support for cross-border terrorism). There was also the fact that the Taliban was largely a Pakistani movement that had found a home in neighboring Afghanistan, but the significance of that had not yet sunk completely in - the Bush Administration, in fact, was at that time happy to reward the Taliban for its role in suppressing heroin production.

After 9/11, Pakistan became an important but vexing ally in the war against Afghanistan, and it remains crucial to our fighting that war. Musharref seems to recognize that his future is most assured if he has the backing of the United States, and (given his circumstances) has made a considerable effort to do what the Bush Administration asks of him. It was obvious from the outset that this was putting him into greater conflict with Pakistan's religious extremists. Over the past two weeks, that conflict has produced two significant assassination attempts, which were obviously made on the basis of inside information. Musharref escaped in both cases by a matter of seconds. Unless a highly placed mole (or perhaps more than one highly placed mole) is identified, and the flow of information ended, it is unlikely that Musharref's luck will hold.

In today's London Guardian, Peter Preston examines some of the issues surrounding Musharref, his importance in the continuing war effort in Afghanistan, and the improbability that a successor will be as accomodating of the United States.

Pervez Musharraf, for all his evasions, is a pretty determined man. He has India's prime minister coming to town for talks about peace. He has chosen a necessary course and, by and large, sticks to it. But Washington and London, applauding benignly, can take absolutely nothing for granted. Here is a teeming country boasting its own brand new weapons of mass destruction. Knock one piece off the board (or blow up one bridge on time) and everything, including the nature of the finger on the button, changes.

Another 9/11 attack on the White House lawn - or the back side of Downing Street? Maybe. The awful warnings of homeland security are always, rather hysterically, with us. But a calculating, canny Osama has a much easier and more tempting place to strike: and is doing just that. Pakistan is the frontline of 2004, with only one lonely (almost) ex-soldier guarding the gate. When the WMD go off there, then the connections engulf us all.

It's an unpleasant possibility for those of us who have long been concerned that Pakistan's nuclear arsenal might end up in the hands of an extremist government not far removed from the Taliban, or be funneled by a successor government (or during the chaotic period between governments) into the hands of a terrorist group that would like to plant a megaton or two in Los Angeles, London, New York, or Tel Aviv.

Of course, there's also the possiblity that following the assassination of Musharref, Bush might roll in some troops to maintain order, producing yet another occupation of yet another nation that is largely ungovernable. So I guess we should all be rooting for the survival of a self-serving, corrupt, non-elected third world despot "because the alternative is worse". Happy New Year.

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