... Same as the Old Bush?

The old Bush, if you recall, expressed wistfully that the best outcome for Iraq would have been to replace Hussein with a somewhat more enlightened dictator, strong enough to maintain a unified nation. For the past couple of years, the new Bush has been asserting that we are going to "bring democracy" to Iraq. Some have doubted the new Bush's sincerity on this issue, while others have questioned whether democracy in a nation where the majority is likely to vote for a form of Shiite theocracy is the best outcome. Some suggest that the new Bush may be confusing elections with democracy.

But now there is a suggestion that Bush is becoming more "pragmatic" in his views of "democratization". That is, he may be looking for the dictator his father desired:

The plan Washington forced on Bremer last month abandoned the Pentagon's policy of steady progress towards democracy through an elected assembly. The new plan was more urgent, a "transfer of power" to a provisional government next July, with the hope of elections thereafter. This government would be selected from the three provinces on a local "show of hands". It would run the new Iraqi army and police force and enjoy some patronage over oil revenue and $US19 billion ($25.8 billion) of aid.

Now this plan appears also to be in disarray. After witnessing the present governing council, the White House has understandably lost faith in Iraqi assemblies, however chosen. Evidence of economic recovery means nothing when Iraqis associate US occupation with fear and lawlessness.

Iraq has only ever been held together by brute force. Washington is grudgingly accepting the view that this is unlikely to change. A new leader is needed to prevent the place becoming a global magnet for what the Arabist historian Bernard Lewis calls "new causes for anger, new dreams of fulfilment, new tools of attack"

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