Showing posts with label North Korea. Show all posts
Showing posts with label North Korea. Show all posts

Thursday, July 19, 2012

The Top Issues That Romney Should (But Won't) Address

If Mitt Romney wants to move the campaign from the non-serious to the serious, to move from fabricated attacks to substantive discussion, ere are some issues I would like to see him address:
  1. Climate Change: Let's skip past the B.S. and acknowledge the facts. The world is getting hotter and all of the world's nations are going to be affected, some far more seriously than others. What policy should the U.S. take in response to climate change, and if you propose anything but inaction how will you lead the world on the issue?

  2. Trade Deficits: If our nation runs a trade deficit, that deficit must be "paid for" with some combination of government debt or private debt. Do you believe that foreign nations will, in effect, subsidize our consumers forever, or do you believe that the trade deficit matters and should be reduced? If you want to reduce trade deficits, what steps will you take to bring about a reduction? If not, how do you propose that our nation's position in the global marketplace can be sustained over the long-term?

  3. Terrorism: Since George W. Bush left office, the approach to the "war on terror" has shifted from starting large, traditional wars in nation states to launching small commando raids and drone strikes around the world. While a good case can be made that the new approach is the better one for combating groups planning terror attacks against the U.S., its interests and allies, the lack of Congressional oversight over the choice of targets and use of drones creates serious questions about the proper scope of executive power, while also raising serious resentment against the U.S. in areas where drone strikes are occurring. What will you do to address those concerns, and what will be your policy on the selection of targets (including U.S. citizens) and whether and when to order commando raids or drone strikes on selected targets?

  4. Military Spending: Do you believe that there is any waste, fat or excess in the U.S. military and defense budgets? If not, please make the economic case for our present weapons systems, actual and under development, vast network of military bases, and other expenditures that come under frequent attack, even from within your party? If so, what programs would you modify or cut? What military expenditures do you deem the most crucial to the nation's interest, and which do you deem to be the least? How would you search for efficiencies and, once identified, how would you implement more efficient practices or policies? How will your policies, one way or the other, affect military spending in present and future budgets? How will they affect national defense, as well as overseas military commitments and activities? Are there any world conflicts in which you would increase or decrease a U.S. military role and presence and, if so, which ones, for what purpose, and at what cost?

  5. Russia and Eastern Europe: What are your policies on our relations with Russia and Eastern Europe. Over the course of your campaign you have proposed a number of policies that would antagonize Russia, and have criticized Obama Administration policies on U.S.-Russian relations that appear to have significantly improved our nation's relations with Russia. What will be your approach to Russia, issue-by-issue, and what impact do you expect those policies to have on U.S.-Russian relations or Russian cooperation with U.S. political, military and economic goals? For example, allowing former Soviet Bloc nations to join NATO, whether or not such a move might be justified for other reasons, or implementing ballistic missile defense technologies on Russian's border, could cause Russia to cease its cooperation with and facilitation of U.S. military efforts in Afghanistan, to cooperate with sanctions against nations like Iran, or otherwise act in a manner contrary to U.S. goals and interests. What balances will you draw, and why do you believe they will work?

  6. Banking Regulation: Even after the near-collapse of the financial industry and the government bailouts of banks, some of the nation's (and world's) largest financial institutions have continued to engage in acts that range from incompetent to reckless to criminal. What regulations would you support to prevent a recurrence of a financial industry collapse? How can you guarantee that the U.S. taxpayer will never again be asked to bail out bankers - let alone before every penny of shareholder and bondholder money has been extracted to try to solve the bank's problem without moral hazard?

  7. Health Care: If you truly are of the position that the Affordable Care Act is an atrocity that must be repealed, despite its remarkable similarity to the plan you signed into law as governor of Massachusetts, exactly what do you propose to implement in its place? One would expect a business leader to look at other companies and identify possible ways to increase efficiency or save costs - would you look to other approaches to health insurance in the industrialized world, and bring their best elements to the U.S.? If so, which ones? If not, why not?

    What concrete proposals can you share to address healthcare costs and healthcare inflation? Should the government have a policy on end of life care and, if so, what should that policy be? If not, how do you propose to get health care costs in check without taking a position on the leading contributor to that cost?

  8. Employment and Wages: Do you believe that a strong middle class is important to American Society? Are you concerned that middle class wages are stagnant, middle class jobs are disappearing, and middle class workers are feeling enormous financial pressure? If so, what policies do you propose that will help improve the financial well-being of the middle class and expand the pool of middle class jobs? If not, why not?

  9. National Debt: As a businessman, you did not shy away from debt. Quite the opposite, one of your tactics was to acquire companies with low debt and then significantly increase their debt load. If you would add debt to a company to invest in infrastructure or extract profits for your investors, aren't you confirming that the problem is not the debt itself but the cost of that money? As head of a private equity firm, if you acquired a business enterprise is able to borrow at extremely low rates, rates that with inflation amount to a break-even or possibly even a negative interest rate, what would you do? Would you apply different principles as President, refusing to borrow what amounts to "free money" in a time of crisis to invest in the nation's infrastructure at a time when such an investment could significantly boost employment and future competitiveness? If so, why?

  10. Deficit Spending: You have argued against deficit spending, even in a time of severe economic crisis, but you have not proposed a credible plan for balancing the budget. You have instead endorsed a budget that cuts unspecified domestic spending, cuts taxes for the wealthy and for corporations, and as a result increases the budget. If you in fact are concerned about deficit spending, exactly what cuts will you made to reduce domestic spending? Will you make any cuts to military spending and if so, exactly what will you cut? If it is necessary to raise taxes to balance the budget, what taxes will you raise and by what amounts?

  11. Infrastructure Improvement: On a related note, our nation has a lot of looming problems - decaying roads, bridges and water distribution systems, an archaic power grid, and the like. We are even lagging other nations in telecommunications and high speed Internet services. What policies will you enact to address those issues? How much money will you allocate to those issues and, if none, how would you justify a continued neglect of infrastructure for an additional four to eight years under your leadership?

  12. Iran and North Korea: As you know, our nation and our allies have employed sanctions against "rogue regimes" for many decades. Until a few years ago, proponents of sanctions could point to Libya as "the exception that proves the rule," with Gadhafi's abandonment of certain weapons programs offered as proof that sanctions and international isolation can work. If the goal is merely to slow the development of weapons programs sanctions may have an impact, but there's no evidence that sanctions will stop the development of such programs.

    You have expressed that it is important to address North Korea's military posturing and nuclear arsenal, as well as the possibility that Iran might develop nuclear weapons, but to achieve those goals you focus on new, stronger sanctions. Exactly what new sanctions do you propose, and what evidence can you offer that they will work? What will be the measure of success or failure for your sanctions, and what additional steps will you take if your sanctions fail? Under what circumstances would you find that war with Iran or North Korea was in the best interest of the United States and, for each nation, describe what you believe the war would look like, the anticipated cost of the war, both economic and human, and your plan for the post-war period.

  13. Campaign Finance Reform and Transparency: Do you believe that it is important to reduce the influence of wealthy corporations and individuals on elections, or at least to slow or stop the trend by which election costs are skyrocketing and politicians start fundraising for the next election the day after they win the current election? If so, what concrete measures do you support to address the issues of campaign funding and donor transparency? If not, why not?

  14. The Middle East: What policies do you favor to produce politically stable, politically friendly governments in the Middle East, and how will those policies be implemented by your administration?

  15. China: You have expressed that China doesn't play fair in the global marketplace. At the same time, China has emerged as a very important economic partner, providing labor for many U.S. and international corporations while also investing heavily in U.S. Treasury Bonds. What are the exact issues you hope to resolve between the U.S. and China, what steps will you take to address those issues, what will you do when China inevitably pushes back, and what do you believe will be the consequences of your policies and action on relations and trade between the U.S. and China?

  16. Immigration: Unlike most Americans, your family has directly benefited from the immigration policies of one of our neighbors, Mexico, and your grandparents were able to take up residence in Mexico in response to what they perceived as religious persecution in the United States. As a business leader you are familiar with companies that bring workers into the U.S. on various types of employment visas. As a homeowner, you have used immigrant labor to maintain the grounds of your home. How have your experiences influenced your perspective on immigration? What is your preferred immigration policy for the United States, including for family reunification, asylum, for skilled workers, for unskilled workers, and for international students and scholars?

  17. Pakistan and Afghanistan: What are your proposals for creating and sustaining stable regimes in Pakistan and Afghanistan that, even if not friendly to the U.S., are at least not unfriendly and are unwilling to host groups that are hostile to U.S. interests? What will you do to address the possibility that Pakistan might export nuclear technology, or that a collapse of its government might cause nuclear weapons to fall into unfriendly hands?

  18. Poverty: Speaking in broad terms, we have two populations of people in poverty. The first group will emerge from poverty over time. The second group will not, and is at risk of becoming part of a generational cycle of poverty. What help can and should the government offer to each group? How can we help ensure that people in the first group do successfully emerge from poverty, rather than potentially falling into the second group? What policies do you propose that will help us break the cycle of poverty, first by helping impoverished adults find their way into jobs and careers, and second to minimize the risk that their children will become part of a cycle of poverty?

  19. Intellectual Property: As you know, intellectual property law is very important to inventors and businesses. If you cannot protect your inventions and your creativity you operated under a severely reduced incentive, perhaps even a disincentive, to make serious investments of time and money in new technology and new ideas. At the same time we have created a byzantine system of patents that makes it virtually impossible to produce a new technology that doesn't violate somebody's patent, and literally impossible for a company to be certain that its new invention is not going to be subject to a claim that it violates a competitor's patent, or one held by a "patent troll". We have allowed copyrights to be extended well beyond the life of the creator, stifling derivative works even long after the creator's death.

    What policies do you propose to protect inventors on both sides of the equation - those whose inventions merit protection, and those who become the targets of demands or litigation despite their having no knowledge or awareness of the patent they have allegedly infringed and having made a good faith effort to respect the intellectual property rights of others? How will you balance those interests? What measures do you propose to protect companies from international or domestic piracy, and how will you balance the rights of intellectual property owners against the privacy rights of consumers, their right to use or control their own legitimately purchased or licensed products, and their legitimate fair use of copyrighted material? Would you support or oppose a new SOPA/PIPA-type law? If the former, under what terms? If the latter, on what basis, and would you veto any such law that came across your desk?

  20. Federal Criminal Law: Do you agree that federal criminal laws extend too far into the realm of state and local concerns, and criminalize a lot of conduct that should at most be the subject of a civil legal action? If so, please share some examples of criminal laws that you believe represent federal government overreach, and what steps you will take to roll back or at least prevent additional overreach.

  21. The Economy: We have been experiencing slow economic growth and slow job growth for far too long. As you know, the President's role in both boosting the economy and affecting job growth are overrated, but the President is in a position to advocate for economic policies and to influence the decisions made by the Federal Reserve. Assuming that the sluggish recovery continues, what policies do you propose to speed up the recovery and why do you believe they will be effective? If the recovery slows or stops, or we fall back into recession, what policies do you propose to respond to those problems and why do you believe they will be effective? If another catastrophe occurs, be it an economic bubble, a collapse of the Euro, or some other factor or catastrophe we may not have even considered, what measures will you take to insulate the U.S. economy from catastrophe and why do you believe those measures will be effective? What steps, if any, would you take to help stabilize the economic situation in Europe, or an economic problem that develops elsewhere in the world that might affect the U.S. economy? As you know, there was ample warning of both the Internet bubble and the housing bubble, yet concerns were dismissed. What steps will you take to identify growing problems, including economic bubbles, and how will you react if a potential problem is identified?

  22. Subsidies: When, if ever, should the government subsidize private enterprise? If you support subsidies, when should subsidies be given? What form should they take - cash grants, conditional loans, loan guarantees, tax credits, tax exemptions, etc. - and under what circumstances? How should the amounts of any subsidies be determined? What form or forms of government subsidy should never be extended to private enterprise, and why?

Note, I'm not offering these as questions for a debate between the candidates - as questions that can be avoided or evaded. If I want to see somebody talk around the issues, I can turn on the television and listen to the pablum that the mainstream media deems to be sufficient - assuming I'm lucky enough that somebody in the mainstream media is even asking about the big issues - or look at the candidates' websites. I would like to hear substantive commentary on these issues.

Please note also, by implication these are issues that have not been adequately addressed by the Obama Administration. In some cases, through its action or inaction, we know where the Obama Administration stands, and where its rhetoric departs from its actions. I would welcome the Obama Administration to specifically address these issues, the extent to which its present policies have failed, and its plans to resolve any shortcomings or improve how it handles these issues in the future.

Monday, January 23, 2012

The Purpose of Sanctions Against Iran is.... What?

I know, I know. Sanctions are supposedly going to convince the Iranian government to give up a nuclear weapons program that it claims it's not pursuing. Nobody believes Iran, so I guess the theory is that if economic sanctions keep piling up Iran will eventually have to deal with corrupt individuals and nations to export its oil despite the sanctions give up its nuclear weapons program. And we'll know that the sanctions worked because of their long and consistent record of failure because Iran will announce that it will have given up its nuclear weapons program and, when that time comes, for some reason its denials will suddenly seem credible. Or something like that.

I'm reminded of another nation which, after many years of economic sanctions, a militarily imposed "no fly zone", and the like, was the subject of an invasion to end its quest for "weapons of mass destruction". For a number of reasons, some quite valid, the invading nations had discounted the nation's denials of having WMD's and engaged in demagoguery about the risk posed by their non-existent weapons and non-existent delivery vehicles. After invasion we learned that the nation had abandoned its programs to develop such weapons but, you know, why worry about a wasted $trillion or two and a decade of occupation, or whether eventual blowback might make the nation or region even more dangerous - we found out for sure.

That situation was, of course, completely different. The nation's name ended with a q.

Seriously, what is Iran to conclude from the behavior of western nations? The principal lesson seems to be that if they claim to have abandoned a nuclear weapons program they won't be believed, that if they allow massive inspections of their territory they will be accused of having secret sites that they have not disclosed, and that sanctions will continue to pile up until the western world announces that the burden of maintaining the sanctions is too high and it's time to invade. (If Iran has a nuclear weapons program, it's difficult to imagine that anything short of an invasion will give any amount of certainty that it has been eliminated.) Or they can act like North Korea - develop an actual nuclear weapon. You may not get rid of the sanctions but you will significantly reduce and eventually all-but-eliminate the threat of military action. (If there's a different lesson they are likely to draw, not from the theory of sanctions but from the past behavior of western nations, please feel free to share it in the comments.)

I guess I'm just not seeing the benefit of pushing Iran to the point that it has nothing to lose by building nuclear weapons and demonstrating that it is a nuclear power. That's not the purpose of the sanctions, and I'm sure the proponents of layering misery upon misery on the Iranian people have somehow convinced themselves that "this time truly is different" and that the sanctions will "work", but at a certain point Iran will be left with nothing to lose by becoming a nuclear power - and potentially a lot to gain if it can remove a military threat from the equation. And I'm not sure how far we presently are away from that point.

Monday, April 12, 2010

Stating (And Missing) The Obvious

In an unsigned editorial, Fred Hiatt and his crew share this insight about North Korea:
There's debate over whether [inducements from China] would be useful in restarting diplomacy or unhelpful in easing the pressure that alone might someday spur a deal [on denuclearization of North Korea]. What's most likely is that it doesn't matter: that the North Korean regime will never give up its nuclear weapons, because it has nothing else -- no legitimacy at home or abroad. As in Iran, the problem is the regime more than the weapons. That's not an argument against engagement with Kim Jong Il any more than with the mullahs. It is an argument for clear-eyed engagement, though -- with a recognition that in the long run only a change in the nature of North Korea's government is likely to solve this problem.
And thus we create a circle - absent regime change, nations like North Korea and Iran will continue their nuclear weapons programs... because the possession of nuclear weapons pretty much ensures that they won't be invaded by the nations seeking to effect regime change. It's easy to cheer for regime change when you are speaking of one of the worst governments on the planet, but its not realistic to expect that sabre rattling will inspire North Korea to give up its nuclear program (or its chemical weapons, or its fortified conventional arsenal that's positioned to devastate Seoul in the event of a western attack).

But what if we achieve regime change? As Dan Larison frequently points out in relation to Iran, there's no reason to take on faith that a new regime will be any less interested in pursuing a nuclear weapons program, and there are plenty of reasons that have nothing to do with being "evil" that might impel a successor regime to continue its program.

Monday, June 22, 2009

The Axis of Evil Revisited


As we have a flame-baiter posting irrelevant comments about North Korea's placement in "The Axis of Evil", it seems appropriate to revisit the post I made the last time this happened. (Wanna bet it's the same person?)

Tuesday, July 15, 2008

But What About North Korea?


A contributor to the Times is concerned that the Bush Administration is dropping the ball on North Korea:
For a while, the drumbeat in Washington has been that the so-called six-party talks are going well and the North Korean nuclear program is well on its way to being contained. If only that were true.

In fact, the Kim Jong-il regime is getting exactly what it wants and using American hunger for diplomatic success to split us from our most important regional allies in the process. If this were high-stakes poker, the North Koreans would be biting their lips to hide their smiles at the cards in their hands.
The Bush Administration has "hunger for diplomatic success"? If anything, they're looking for cover for their Iran strategy - an answer to the question, "Why Iran, and not North Korea?"

Thursday, December 20, 2007

North Korea and the Axis of Evil


We had a comment troll stop by to ask, in a thread on a completely different subject, if I "still think" North Korea doesn't belong in the "Axis of Evil". The proper answer is, "What axis of evil?"

The comment troll's confusion apparently emerges from the fact that I have previously commented on the use of the term "Axis of Evil" as a propaganda tool. The term is an allusion to the Axis powers of WWII, and is meant to suggest cooperation, collaboration and conspiracy. As anybody with a whit of knowledge on the subject knows, there is absolutely no coordination between the three nations named by Bush - Iran and Iraq had been in conflict for decades. Why was North Korea dragooned into the "Axis"? A common explanation is that the Bush Administration didn't want the "Axis" it to be all Arab or all Muslim, thus preferring North Korea to a nation like Syria. Another is that he simply pulled in the names of the three nations against which he most wished to pursue military action. But in no meaningful sense is there an "Axis of Evil" comprised of those three nations.

The question of whether the government of North Korea is evil? While evil is a loaded word, in North Korea's case the question is not a hard one - it's among the world's most vile governments. But my disdain for Kim Jong-il doesn't inspire me to buy into propaganda spun by dishonest politicians. I guess that's where the comment troll and I part company.

Monday, August 30, 2004

Better than Appeasement?


Today's Washington Post brings us an editorial suggesting that, believe it or not, the present strategy of appeasement is not the best tactic for resolving the world's concerns about North Korea, and dares to suggest that human rights should be placed back on the agenda.

Wednesday, June 23, 2004

Why it seems like only yesterday....


... that the Bushies were attacking Clinton for his North Korea policy, in which he had offered aid in return for their promises to freeze their nuclear weapons program. So, of course, the Bush Administration has now come up with a completely different approach to the situation. [cough]

Oh, sure, this time they are required to ship their plutonium out of the country. And surely, given how truthful they were last time around, they will be very honest about their ability to produce additional plutonium, and how much weapons grade plutonium they have already refined.....

Thursday, March 18, 2004

The Carrot And The Stick


Today's Times editorializes that the Bush Administration must do more than participate in regional conferences with North Korea, where nothing seems to be achieved, and must outline what it will offer to North Korea if that nation abandons its nuclear weapons program. A similar approach seems to have worked with Libya, although Libya's weapons program was nowhere near as advanced as North Korea's, and Libya seemed far more eager to reintegrate into the world economy.

There is some truth to what the editorial suggests - catching more flies with sugar, and all that. But isn't that more or less what Clinton attempted - securing promises from North Korea that it would freeze its nuclear weapons program in exchange for international aid? And what was the result again? Oh yes - North Korea accepted the aid, told its people that it was tribute paid by a cowardly and decadent West, and continued its weapons programs.

A diplomatic solution would be wonderful - but such solutions require some level of integrity on both sides. And there is little evidence of the necessary integrity on the part of North Korea.

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